Sunday, July 31, 2016

I Made You a Thing: Pro-Clinton Balloon Party with FB Cover Size

 We deal with the tough issues here, like who has fun with balloons.

Original

Click for full size.

Click Me.

Rebalanced Original

I noticed that despite the numerically balanced sides, that the difference in text length and the placement of the logo, so I rebalanced it. Hopefully it's neither right-heavy nor obviously left-narrow.

Click for full size.

Click Me.

Facebook Cover Photo Size

Click for full size.

Click Me.

Friday, July 29, 2016

You Should Really Stop Saying that Hillary Clinton Is Boring

Many people complain about Hillary Clinton's speaking style, but they complain about different things. It's a problem faced by every woman in politics: she's trying to manage a double bind.

The Public Speaking Double Bind


There are different stereotypes about women speaking. We talk too much. We yell. We screech, We're shrill. We're timid. We're too quiet. We're too assertive. We're not assertive enough. We hedge too much. We hedge too little. We're crying. We're whining. We're too masculine. We're too feminine. We're hysterical. We nag. We're obviously not taking this seriously.

I'll break this into the obvious pair.

Being Too Loud


You've probably heard people complain that Hillary Clinton yells. For a funny explanation of why you shouldn't complain about this, have some satire. For a not funny one, there's always Time.

The obvious example in Clinton's case is used in both of those pieces. One night, Clinton won the primaries in Ohio and Florida, important swing states. She got excited! Who wouldn't be excited? She raised her voice in a moment of exuberance and BAM: "What's she angry at?" "She should be smiling!" "A more conversational tone might be better." "It's weird to hear those words in such angry tones."

Those are actual criticisms of her raising her voice in happiness from pundits from that one incident.

When Bernie Sanders gave his speech at the DNC on Monday, he yelled literally the whole speech. And it wasn't even like the totally engaging Black preacher who yelled an invocation on Thursday. It was monotone yelling. He yells all the time. Clinton even used it against Sanders in a debate.

During the first Democratic debate, Sanders responded to Clinton’s impassioned anti-gun argument by telling her that “all the shouting in the world” won’t fix the issue. Now Clinton, to huge amounts of applause from the women in her audiences, has taken to saying, “Sometimes when a woman speaks out, some people think it’s shouting.”

Trump yells all the time. I think he dyes himself orange so we can't see the red when he yells. At this point, I don't think that Sanders or Trump is capable of speaking without yelling. What do people call it when they yell? Passionate. Engaging. Heartfelt. Exciting.

What's the opposite of exciting?


Being Too Quiet


Is not the opposite of exciting, although it is the opposite of loud. We should all be clear at this point that Clinton doesn't really have this problem, but it is a problem for many women and it greatly affects women in other speaking contexts. If women are too quiet, we're: not assertive enough. Not taking this seriously. Timid. Too quiet. Too feminine.

Is There a Solution to the Double Bind?


Yes, it's always speaking at a conversational volume, without high or low volume jumps to signal emotion, while still managing to not sound robotic. We used to hear that complaint about her all the time. Well, she's managed to avoid sounding robotic, so what do we call what's left in her allowable vocal range?

The opposite of exciting: boring.


The Public Speaking Triple Bind: Boring


So, you've managed to navigate the sexist double bind and no one is accusing you of yelling or complaining that you're not taking this seriously. You've also avoided sounding like a robot, so now you are boring.

Think of the speech as a tightrope. Clinton is trying to walk the tightrope to the other side. If she steps too far to the left, she'll fall off and people will complain that she's yelling. If she steps too far to the right, she'll fall off and people will complain that she isn't taking this seriously. Over decades of public speaking, at least dozens of hours of performance, she has learned to very precisely walk that tightrope and get to the other side.

Calling her boring is faulting her for getting to the other side. She really can't win, can she?

Also...


If we bring any of this up, we're "whining."

What Difference Does It Make?


If the biggest fault that you can find with Hillary Clinton is that she's not the world's best orator, you should really ask yourself why that matters.

There are three circumstances in which I can immediately think that oratory skills can benefit a President:


  • convincing Congress to do things
  • convincing the leaders of other nations to do things
  • speaking to "the people"


Remember the superdelegates that some people were so mad about? A lot of them are Congresspeople. Hillary Clinton has a lot of friends to help her achieve her goals. Since that's the case, is oration a skill that she needs for this? Not so much.

And you remember that she was Secretary of State? Her job was to fly around talking to world leaders and every time she went to a country, she also stopped to talk to local women to find out what their needs were. She has excellent working relationships with the leaders and citizens of other countries and is very popular with them. Besides which, most of them get her speeches translated. (I mean, I assume.) So, does oration really matter here? Not really, no.

What's left is talking to the people, so the State of the Union Address and occasional national crises. Neither of those is supposed to be entertaining! In a crisis, I want to hear a calm, soothing, rational voice. That's the boring voice that people complain about.

"But I Don't Want to Have a Beer with..."


Well, I do. She is an amazing, brilliant, accomplished woman who has seen the whole world, who has experiences that I can only imagine. She has been harassed and investigated and smeared, even while we watched her endure a cheating scandal, and she is still fighting. She is succeeding in the face of that and in spite of the sexist BS that she has to endure in her field. I would want to have a beer with Hillary Clinton even if she'd lost the race-- even if she hadn't run. I think she must be fascinating to talk to. She is unique. Or rather, I'd love to shoot vodka with her because I'm allergic to some beers.

Stubbornness is my superpower but I have nothing on Hillary Clinton's stubbornness. She only invests in two attributes: int and resil.

I think she's incredibly interesting.

Still Think She's Boring?


If you think that Clinton's speeches are boring, you may be faulting her for successfully navigating the sexist double bind that applies to women's public speaking. If you want to avoid being sexist, you should simply understand that this is what's happening and give her some leeway. If you think that Clinton is personally boring, you don't care about her uniqueness, her vast life experience, her fight for civil rights, or anything that she's done, in which case, I think you're a fool and I would like your beer date with Clinton, plzkthx.

I'm pretty sure that picture is someone punching water. Just sayin'.

Monday, July 25, 2016

DEBUNKENING: DNC Rigging Conspiracies Are Nonsense, Part 1

There have been many conspiracy theories in my life, but no set so prevalent and potentially damaging as the relentless deluge of ludicrous conspiracies that Clinton "rigged" the Democratic primary. Several of the pro-Sanders rigging conspiracies are so far-fetched that in order for Clinton to have done them, she would need to have a time machine and use it repeatedly.

I will be rating the conspiracies in part based on how important time machines are to this conspiracy. The Time Machines will be payed by TARDISes. Because it's my blog and I like Doctor Who. For those who have not read A Despot's Guide to Critical Thinking About Conspiracies, I will be linking relevant sections inline.

Table of Contents

Now, on to The Debunkening!

Only Sanders' Supporters..."


Claim: this is a meta claim that shows up in almost all of the other claims, so I'm going to cover it separately to avoid repeating myself 16 times. When people have reported "voting irregularities," they have claimed that the irregularities happened only to Sanders supporters, which "proves" that Clinton is behind it.

This TARDIS is currently under
construction. Try again later.
Important Omitted Information: proof for these conspiracies is compiled on reddit, in pro-Sanders subreddits. You may as well poll at a Sanders rally, asking people their choice of candidate. In line with the white dude delusion "If I don't know about it, it doesn't exist," they take lack of reports in their channels as proof that no Clinton supporters have complained about the same thing. In reality, there aren't many Clinton supporters in pro-Sanders subreddits, so there won't be reports by Clinton supporters there. Lack of Clinton supporter reports there is meaningless due to selection bias.

Debunk: This is the stupidest case of selection bias that I have ever seen, but for some reason, this is claimed about approximately all of the rigging conspiracy theories, even ones in which it's not possible limit the problem to Sanders voters. There seem to be a lot of "stupidest cases of [insert badness] that I've ever seen" this primary.

Time Machine Factor: Depends on the implementation.

Implied Assertion: The DNC Runs State Elections


Claim: This is another meta-claim that's important for understanding the other claims. "Voter suppression" is being committed by the DNC. The DNC purged rolls. The DNC set the voter registration deadline. The DNC selectively closed polls in minority neighborhoods. The DNC ran out of ballots at such-and-such polling station. This is often an assertion used as a basis for claiming pro-Clinton rigging: because the DNC did it, they did it on behalf of Clinton. It's often an implied assertion though. They say something like "It's voter suppression to disallow same-day voter registration, which the DNC is doing to rig the election for Clinton."

Important Omitted Information: Elections are run by state election officials, brain cases. The DNC didn't do any of those things. This is factually untrue! The DNC doesn't have the ability to purge people from the voter rolls, because those are government run. Not enough polling locations in minority areas? State or county election officials. Not enough workers at polling locations? State or county election officials. Same day registration not allowed? State or county election officials.

Did you go to the Democratic Party to register to vote? No. You went to a government office, typically a registrar or the DMV.

Not Doctor Who but too hilarious to skip.
Debunk: Seriously? You don't know that you didn't register to vote at a Democratic Party office? Or did you register as a non-Democrat but the Democrats control your registration anyway because jazz hands?

The DNC can't commit voter suppression at a polling location because they do not control anything about election procedures. The only thing they might control about an election is whether their primary is open or closed, but no, that's up to state law. If you don't know that, stop insisting that you're much more informed than I am. You don't even know how an election works. This is simply a false assertion. Repeatedly using it doesn't make it more reliable; it only makes your arguments more circular.

Most of these claims also don't fit on a timeline, like "Clinton made sure that there wouldn't be enough workers at the polls in California because she was ahead in early voting but lost voting-day voting. By making the lines untenably long, she disenfranchised 'only Sanders supporters' because she knew she would lose if she didn't."

So, late Monday, she checked the number of tallies (which weren't public information at the time). Tuesday, she went back in time, took over the election board, identified people who would choose Sanders months later, selectively closed polling stations, mailed out the voter notifications listing the new polling locations, and cut the number of staff at the polls. Then she got back in the time machine and came back for her victory speech.

Time Machine Factor: The Eleventh Doctor is having none of your shit and built a you-repelling field around the TARDIS for everyone's safety.

The Initial DNC Data Breach was a Pro-Clinton Frame Job


Claim: Last fall, the Sanders campaign pointed out a security flaw to the DNC repeatedly. No action was taken to fix it, so one of their staffers retrieved data on Clinton's donors as proof of the flaw, then alerted the DNC again. The DNC responded by shutting off all Sanders access to the server in question, eliminating his access to even his own data*. Sanders sued the DNC to regain his access, arguing that the staffer in question had been recommended by the DNC, implying this was just an elaborate setup by the DNC to remove his access without showing that their real motivation was to discredit him and harm his campaign, as part of their collusion with Clinton.

Important Omitted Information: I've worked as a web programmer for over 15 years and during that time, I have had to personally manage 6 security breaches. This is in addition to breaches that I have witnessed as a habitual dater of sysadmins and security admins. You don't know about any of these breaches because they were not made public. The first priority in a breach is to cover your ass; you plug the hole and you hope no one spills the beans. If word gets out that there was a breach, it damages the company's reputation, so unless passwords or credit cards are stolen, there will probably not be a press release. And to be frank, if credit cards were stolen, you probably still won't be told, even if the FBI is*2. Passwords are a different matter though; in spite of their theft typically indicating poor security procedures, the ramifications are bad enough that you are more frequently told about their theft, which is still far less than "always." These things happen all the time but you just don't know about it because almost everyone is hiding it.

Debunk: Now look at the DNC breach with that in mind. Plug the hole: cut off Sanders' access temporarily while the fix is being implemented. Hope no one tells: make the Sanders team think that the problem was their fault and that their reputation will be damaged if word gets out. And if that doesn't work, intimidate them and hope that it will keep them quiet. The Sanders team didn't keep quiet; they exposed the breach, at which point, there's no longer a point in trying to intimidate them. Turn their access back on and hope the stink isn't too big.

Thus, our potential explanations are:
  • The DNC allowed Sanders to run as a Democrat if he joined the party, gave him access to their data, recommended an employee to be their mole, then deliberately left the hole open-- things that happened before he was a viable candidate. Then, they had their mole take advantage of the hole from his office, giving them an excuse to cut off Sanders' access. And they did all of these things to rig the election in favor of the candidate who had a massive lead at the time, in fact, from the very beginning when he was actually not a viable candidate. OR...
  • The DNC was trying to cover their ass the way most companies do during a security breach.
So we have one extremely convoluted option that requires a lot of actions for which there is no motivation at the time that it was done, and one extremely simple option that sounds completely sensible. In order to make the first one make sense, we'd have to invent a lot of things. To create motivation, the DNC would have to know that Sanders was a legitimate threat to Clinton back in June, even though Sanders wasn't a viable candidate until January or February.

The Extraordinary Razor says to pick the second explanation. But honestly, why wouldn't you pick the second one if you know that companies act that way in response to a breach? That said, people that I know through programming went with option 1. Come on, programmers. You use logic for a living and you know computer security is joke.

Time Machine Factor: One Drunk TARDIS required.

Clinton Won 6/6 Coin Tosses in Iowa


Claim: Clinton won Iowa because she won 6/6 coin tosses at the caucuses.

Important Omitted Information: There were more than 6 coin tosses and none of them made a significant enough difference for either party to win because of them. It was reported in the media that "of at least 6 coin tosses" Clinton won 6 but people ignored the "at least" and used that to backup their claim that there were only 6 coin tosses. If all 6 claims are correct, there were at least 12 coin flips, since the application used to track the caucus got  report of 6/7 coin flips for Sanders. It's not a comprehensive list because that application wasn't mandated, but that just means that we can't confirm 5/6 claimed pro-Clinton flips. On top of that, each coin flip allotted a partial delegate, so the end result wasn't a difference of 6 as implied by the claim. In fact, election officials claim that the resulting percentage was so tiny that the coin flips made no difference at all in the outcome.

Debunk: Information was gathered in pro-Sanders subreddits and no one reported any Sanders wins in them. Because they only knew about 6, they assumed that were only 6. There are some obvious selection bias problems with that, plus ye olde White Duditis (if they don't know about something, that is proof that it doesn't exist).

Time Machine Factor: I grant one Spoiler
TARDIS to Sanders supporters so that next time, they can go to the page with the the actual statistics, since waiting until the statistics are fully gathered before calling them complete is a blight on democracy, or something.

Clinton Rigged Maricopa County (Phoenix) With Long Lines


Claim: In Maricopa County (Phoenix), voters arrived to find long lines. After waiting for hours, many of them ran out of time to vote, having to leave to go to work or to pick up children or to manage other obligations. This disenfranchised voters, but only Sanders voters.

Important Omitted Information: The problems in Phoenix were long lines in minority neighborhoods. There are five ways that the GOP has been trying to systematically disenfranchise likely Democratic votersgerrymanderingvoter ID lawslimiting voting hours and weekend votingpurging eligible voters from the polls, and selectively closing polling stations in minority neighborhoods. And nice red uniforms. We know that this is happening, why, and who's doing it because they keep publicly admitting it. Arizona is a strongly red state with a very conservative administrative branch.

In order for "only Sanders supporters" to have been disenfranchised this way, there would have to have separate lines for Sanders voters and Clinton voters, which is illegal because voting in the US is done by secret ballot. Plus, after separating, the Clinton line would have to move much faster. That isn't claimed because there weren't separate lines.

Debunk: This conspiracy contradicts itself because there weren't separate lines.

The problem in Maricopa County is actual voter suppression. The long lines were due to the consolidation of polling places, something that Clinton has no control over because the makeup of polling places is handled by local election officials. Another issue there is that transportation of early voting ballots was limited, so that people not in towns or cities (ie Native Americans), were impaired by lack of transport. In fact, coverage by major news outlets include history that shows that it was action by the GOP that caused the disenfranchisement and even state the selection official's excuses about why her office did it. Now, how Hillary Clinton could convince the Arizona GOP to do her bidding to skew the election in her favor, I have no clue. Because it wouldn't happen. Besides, the disenfranchised voters are from demographics that Clinton won, making it probable that more Clinton voters than Sanders voters were disenfranchised.

But the kicker is that Clinton sued over this and Sanders joined her suit. So for this to be true, Clinton would be suing the government for her actions that disenfranchised her own voters via mechanisms controlled by a GOP government that hates her, but this action affects only Sanders supporters even though that would have required extremely visible illegal behavior that no one is claiming happened. Nope.

The evidence that it only affected Sanders supporters is that "most of Clinton's voters did early voting," according to random non-expert white dudes on the internet. This article takes a statistic that "the majority of people who voted early are over 30" and paraphrases that as "elderly" because wow, really? I know I'm old, but Jesus. "Elderly?" I've seen this "Clinton disenfranchised day-of voting" theory in several places and it's hilarious misuse of statistics. You see, the people who wrote the articles about this aren't aware of the GOP's national campaign to marginalize likely Democratic voters, in part by consolidating minority polling sites-- or they know and conveniently ignore it. The state admits that the problem was caused by it consolidating polling sites, but that problem didn't affect early voting, leaving us with these statistics, which I have to take someone's word on because the county has taken them down:

Early voting:Regular voting:
Clinton:  118,832   66.1%  12,802  39.2%
Sanders:  71,019   33.9%  19,883  60.8%

The explanation for why this disenfranchised Sanders voters but not Clinton voters, how Clinton skewed the election in her favor goes like this:

Clinton knew that she was leading in early voting, so she closed polling stations to disenfranchise regular voting, which skewed heavily Sanders. This requires that Clinton know her early voting lead in time to change the polling locations, which were changed months before polls opened, requiring a time machine. She would have to know that regular voting would lean heavily Sanders at that time to motivate the time trip to change the polling locations and she would have to know which polling locations would lean furthest towards Sanders so that she could close the right ones, requiring that she have the full election statistics before she went back in time. Clinton would have to have the power to close polling stations, doing so between early voting and regular voting, requiring that she go back in time to email a postcard to all affected voters that their polling station had changed. And we are required to ignore that the precincts in question were racial minority ones, leaving polls all across the county with short, white lines and long brown ones.

Clinton gets more minority votes and Sanders gets more white votes. Clinton won the Hispanic vote in Arizona. So, if minority voters but not white voters were disenfranchised on voting day as is alleged, these statistics are exactly what we would expect: higher than expected turnout for Sanders and lower than expected turnout for Clinton.

Instead, we are expected to assume that had Clinton not disenfranchised (only) Sanders voters, that Sanders would have gotten more than 60% of the regular vote even though Clinton got more than 63% of early voting, something that were expected to assume without even any reason to explain why, much less any evidence. 

And that's not the most ludicrous example.

Time Machine Factor: The antenna on their phone booth was a bit fragile and I knew that this would be a complicated trip, so I loaned Bill and Ted a TARDIS. 

Closed Primaries Are Disenfranchisement


Claim: This has been the refrain from every closed primary that Sanders lost-- that disallowing non-Democrats to vote in the Democratic primary is voter disenfranchisement. I have already covered this claim in detail here, but to sum up, there is no right to vote in a party primary, and thus, no disenfranchisement.

Important Omitted Information: Open primaries are subject to cross-voting, in which members of a major party vote in the opposing major party's primary to try to get the weakest candidate selected. This is a strategy to rig the Presidential election in favor of a party by sabotaging the other party. It is the dilution of legitimate party member votes in favor of non-members, who have no right to vote or even a legitimate interest. In addition, there is evidence to support that allowing independents to vote in a primary can skew the primary towards a candidate who isn't appropriate for the party and that will damage the party's chances in the election.

This redefinition of "voter disenfranchisement" is a demand that Sanders supporters be allowed to break the rules, typically asked for after the fact so that independent and third party voters who want to vote for Clinton don't get the same opportunity. Allowing after the fact rule changes helps rule breakers at the expense of people who knew and accepted the rules,

In fact, according to the lawyers for the Nevada DNC:
After reviewing Nevada law, we believe that registering under false pretenses in order to participate in the Democratic caucuses for purposes of manipulating the presidential nominating process is a felony.The Nevada State Democratic Party will work with law enforcement to prosecute anyone who falsely registers as a Democrat to caucus tomorrow and subsequently participates in the Republican caucuses on Tuesday.
While they technically could try to file charges against anyone who changed party affiliation to vote in the Dem primary, their stated intention was to only file charges against people who voted in the closed Democratic primary and the open Republican one. So they announced in advance that while it was probably illegal for people to register as Democrats just for the primary, they would not pursue charges against people who changed because they genuinely supported one of the Democratic party candidates.

Debunk: This is the Democratic primary, an election process that selects the Democratic Party candidate for President and the de facto leader of the Democratic party. Are you a Democrat? No? Then you don't get to decide who represents the Democrats. I'm not a Democrat. Why should I have a say in who represents the Democrats? I shouldn't! This is completely reasonable. If you would like to vote in the primary, join the party! You wanted openness. They gave you openness. You still complained! My misanthropy levels have been running pretty high.

There should not be a reward for refusing to follow the rules! Lowering voting requirements for only one of two candidates is rigging. It is not "rigging" to disallow actual rigging, no matter how many people yell that it is.

Time Machine Factor: I shall allot one guinea-pig manned TARDIS per affected person who was both not a Democrat prior to primary season and also unable to change their party affiliation on time due to illness or transportation issues, as opposed to because they didn't bother to figure out how to make their vote count in advance.

Closed Primary Party Change Deadlines are Voter Disenfranchisement (NYC, at al)


Claim: In New York, the deadline for changing parties prior to the primary was 6 months before the election, and thus too early for newly interested voters to have become involved. Other states with closed primaries allowed party change but not on the day of the primary, which was called voter disenfranchisement because the deadline was too far in advance, even in a state where the deadline was the day before the election.

Important Omitted Information: This is a closed primary. Some state parties think that closed primaries should actually be closed. By allowing people to join or switch parties for a single election, the state opens the door to cross-voting (including alleged plans for Republicans to double-vote in the Nevada primary) and other dilution of the votes of people intended for the primary, in this case Democrats who are electing a leader for the Democratic party. Cross-voting, specifically, is the reason for long party-change deadlines.

Debunk: Again, there is no right to vote in a primary, only a privilege that in this case is given to party members considered legitimate for this vote. That one state wants to be extra careful to disallow cross-voting isn't an infringement of a right because there is no right involved.

Time Machine Factor: I shall allot one slightly pricklier hedgehog-manned TARDIS to the affected people who would like to go back in time to become interested in politics on a permanent basis prior to the start of primary season, which I estimate to be about 4.


Superdelegates Are Undemocratic

Claim: Superdelegates (AKA unpledged delegates) are representatives of the party who have a delegate vote equivalent to the delegate vote of a "pledged" delegate, one selected through or because of the state primaries, who is required to vote for the person designated by the state primary. (Some states assign delegates proportionally and some are all-or-nothing.) These superdelegates are chosen by the national and state parties and are established party leaders, elected politicians, downmarket candidates, and assorted other people.

Like this superdelegate from Vermont.

Important Omitted Information: Superdelegates serve several purposes: to help ensure that the winning candidate is a viable candidate in the upcoming election, someone who has the support of Democrats in Congress and in state leadership, someone who works well with others to get things done. This is balanced with the will of the voters, in a way that gives the will of the combined voters more weight than the will of the combined superdelegates. This seems completely reasonable to me because newsflash: the Democratic Party is not a democracy! It's not even a government!

That said, the superdelegates almost always vote for the person with the most pledged delegates.

Even more problematic with this claim is that to run in the Democratic primary, one has to sign an agreement to help downmarket elections through appearances and fundraising. Many of the superdelegates are the downmarket candidates. Despite signing an agreement that says that he will help downmarket candidates, Sanders has been insulting them, refusing to help them, and then using that refusal to help as part of his campaign platform, because those people are "The Establishment." Clinton has been helping downmarket candidates and doing other things that have gotten her support with the superdelegates, some of which Sanders calls "purchasing superdelegates" and some of which he has called "money laundering."

The Sanders camp started badmouthing the superdelegates as soon as a bunch of them came out in support of Clinton. Of course, Jeff Weaver was very loud about his hatred of superdelegates, but the truth is: he is the one who got them included in the process in the first place. It's good when it's his idea and supports his goals, bad when they actually behave as autonomous people with their own opinions that don't align with his. But then something interesting happened: Sanders became a superdelegate. Then superdelegates were ok but they must be forced to vote in a specific way, and which specific way depended on which way helped Sanders the most at the time. They must vote for the person who won the state that the superdelegate represents. Oh, Sanders didn't win the most states? Well, they must vote for the person who has the popular vote. Oh, Sanders didn't win the popular vote either? Well, superdelegates must be allowed to vote their hearts because we all know that in secret, no one likes Clinton. I mean, superdelegates must vote for the candidate more likely to win in the general election!

Debunk: People dislike superdelegates because power is a zero-sum game and having superdelegates reduces the power of individual voters, who naturally do not want their power reduced. Well, neither do straight, cis, Judeo-Christian, white men but I honestly don't much care when they complain about it. Speaking of which, I'd like to remind people that the Clinton superdelegates lean heavily black and/or female and the Sanders supporters lean heavily white and male, so I look at this as white guys complaining that black women have too much power.

Well, it's about fucking time.

Did you notice the "flip-flopping" on how the superdelegates "must be forced to vote?" Well, firstly, it's trying to eliminate the work that Clinton did to earn those superdelegates, by claiming that the superdelegates picked her because she "purchased" them or because they're all "The Establishment." Secondly, every position is the one that was expected to benefit Sanders the most at the time. This was never about democracy; this was about a woman having something that a man wanted. That she earned it was irrelevant. What was important was that he got the benefits of her work instead of her.

That's why harassing the superdelegates was perfectly fine with him, the "just reward" for having picked the "wrong" candidate. That's why the victims deserved the blame instead of the harassers. Then the campaign decided to try to convince the superdelegates too, after months of attacking them and victim-blaming them for crimes committed against them by his supporters. After the last primary, not having the pledged delegates, the campaign decided to "increase outreach" to the superdelegates to change their minds.

This claim didn't exist for democracy. This claim existed to benefit Sanders and lasted until it stopped benefitting him.

But in the end, who had those superdelegates picked? The person who won the popular vote by a lot, even after adjustment for caucus states. The person who won the most states. The person who, were there no superdelegates, still would have won.

Time Machine Factor: I inject one Idris TARDIS into the life of each complainant so that they are confused about a woman with power and desires, who helps people only if she wants to.

Pro-Clinton Media Bias


Claim: Sanders supporters love to claim that the media has an anti-Sanders bias, typically in the comments of any article that fails to support Sanders 100%.

In what looked to be a coordinated effort, more than 160 complaints alleging CNN bias in favor of Hillary Clinton were filed. The complaints pushed a now-debunked story claiming the cable news network deleted favorable polling that showed Bernie Sanders won the debate. 

Important Omitted Information: Several studies of media bias in the primary, across all candidates, Clinton got the most negative coverage and the least positive coverage. Once Sanders became a viable candidate, left-wing news and political sites focused on how awesome Sanders is, taking him at his word no matter what he said, and not allowing Clinton to refute his claims against her. Even CNN leaned heavily Sanders, with numerous articles (by the same three white dudes) reciting what Sanders said about Clinton, presented as fact, with no fact checking and no rebuttal. And my favorite, one of them giving Sanders a line to use in the next debate because Sanders' answer to a specific question didn't seem good enough, live on CNN.

Clinton was expected to win by
double digits. That's "sweating."
And this is just the mainstream news sites. Liberal sites like Salon went All in on Bernie and have yet to stop. It was so difficult to find positive coverage of Clinton that I specifically sought out pro-Clinton websites so that I could get the non-Sanders side of stories. You see, before I take a stance on an issue, I look at mainstream news, biased news on both sides, and bloggers who have researched a topic extensively, including links for assertions in their posts, links which I then read as well. Mainstream news sites and liberal standards did such a poor job of presenting Clinton's side of an issue that I had to Google for pro-Clinton coverage just to find the information omitted by the deluge of pro-Sanders news. At one point, I spent the day evaluating CNN's coverage and for articles on the homepage: 5 articles were pro-Sanders, 2 articles were neutral (with "pro-Clinton media bias claims in comments), and 3 were anti-Clinton.

Debunk: When a medium is offering anti-Clinton rhetoric to Sanders live on air with no apparent consequences for that despite it being pointed out repeatedly, that medium is not pro-Clinton. And yet I saw people complain about pro-Clinton bias on articles that discussed a Sanders attack and a Clinton rebuttal.

 If she is allowed to present a stance at all, that's because of pro-Clinton bias. If anyone even hints that there might be another side to the story or maybe Sanders isn't 100% correct, RAWR PRO-CLINTON BIAS! Of course, it's not, hence the repeated studies to the contrary.

This is the hostile media effect: "the tendency for people who have taken a position on an issue to see media coverage of that issue as biased against their position."

Time Machine Factor: I will grant the complainants one DVRed Three Leia TARDIS, because they are obviously confused about what show we're watching.

Coming soon: The next 17 conspiracies!


* I don't think that the DNC was 100% right here. Cutting off Sanders' access to his own data was a dick move. I suspect that the description of the vulnerability was inaccurate and that the symptoms described by the Sanders camp were accurate, in which case, it may have been necessary to turn off his access while the problem was fixed. However, in the case of his own data, it should have been made clear that any such change was temporary. The DNC did not defend themselves with a claim that the lockout was temporary, so I assume that if the intention was for the lockout to be temporary, that that was not made clear.

*2 Yes, I do, in fact, know from experience that reporting an online security breach to the FBI in which credit cards are stolen does not automatically trigger a press release. I actually got hired to clean that one up because I'd warned the company of the security hole over 5 years earlier. If you have shopped online, someone, somewhere has your credit card info. I know someone who only uses prepaid credit cards so that when his cards are stolen, he can just switch.

Thursday, July 21, 2016

I Made You a Thing: Milo is Disappoint.

Milo Yiannopoulos Has Been Banned from Twitter for Launching Multiple Harassment Campaigns

So of course, he wrote some posts lying about the situation so he can pretend to be the victim, claiming that he was banned for his "conservative views" as part of systemic discrimination against conservatives. Part of the harassment attack was to create Twitter accounts designed to look like their target's account, posting things they deem "racist to white people" and whatnot. Their screenshots of these posts are presented as proof that they were merely "fighting back" against a racist, because we are too stupid to see the verified account checkmark or check a timeline.

At any rate, the articles about the issue have had commenters come in to back his claims of discrimination but instead of providing other "victims" of this "systemic discrimination," his defenders get angry if you ask for other examples. It's so hilariously entertaining to expose/countertroll them that I keep losing track of time. Jef Rouner (who they have targeted before) wrote an article about the situation and we've been waiting for the comment trolls to show up. They haven't! It's so sad.


Tuesday, July 19, 2016

CONSPIRACY? Is "The Establishment" Sabotaging Trump?

In the last 2 days, Trump picked his running mate, released and then revoked the campaign's logo, did an interview with Lesley Stahl, and made it through Day 1 of the Republican National Convention. And basically, things went really wrong at every step, in ways that made me say "How did no one see that?" I've started to think that people did and that's why those things got approved.

Trump Picks Pence


I've seen him described as "Sarah Palin without the personality." He has a lot of experience and is expected to bring the Evangelical vote. He's from a state that hates him that Trump is expected to win. He remains calm no matter how often Trump answers questions for him, interrupts him, and corrects someone trying to contrast the two in a helpful way. Nate Silver says that he's the "least worst" of Trumps VP finalists, which is like saying that Betty White is the Golden Girl that teenage boys would most like to have sex with.

If Pence has the Evangelical vote, that means that he opposes my rights and thus, I dislike him. That said, he's saner than Trump, quieter than Trump, or both, which is probably good? Maybe?

Side Note: Trumpence


I would have sworn that this was a word, a portmanteau of (perhaps) trounce and comeuppance-- a well-deserved beating. I Googled thinking that it was from a piece of literature that I'd read and all I found was a "ratchet slang" term, which is an unlikely thing to be in my brain. Kids and their newfangled whatchercallits. As a last resort, I asked my resident English instructor/ fan of made-up words in literature, and she didn't know the word. Unless it's from a Gilbert & Sullivan that she doesn't know, this word only existed in my brain. It happens sometimes.

However, I approve of the definition anyway, because Trump/Pence well-deserves a beating. We should start using it anyway. "And in November 2016, he finally got his trumpence."

The Logo of Hilarity




The original logo was immediately animated, for obvious reasons. It has since been changed to something boring. I've read that the RNC prepared the logo, not the Trump campaign.

Paul Ryan Visits the Young Republicans


This was in my Facebook feed:

"It used to be that they would round up all of the Black and brown people and shove them into the front so the group *looks* diverse."
"I don't think they had any."

In their defense, they put a third of the women in the front row.


We know that Paul Ryan doesn't like Trump, pointing out his overt racism because they like dog whistle racism over there. Paul Ryan is not exactly a civil rights leader, so for him to call the GOP nominee racist is kind of out there. It's likely that he's bitter that he's spent so much of his life working to get where he is and here comes some irate, irrational guy with no experience and he gets the Presidential nomination, potentially destroying the party and taking Ryan's career down with him.

But seriously how could you not notice?

The Interview


Lesley Stahl interviewed Trump and Pence for 60 Minutes, broadcast on Sunday. I watched it and... I am hoping that there was a broadcast glitch or a problem in the DVR because otherwise, she circled back to an unanswered question and asked it again, getting the same answer as before, word for word. I'd watch it online to check but I already have a headache.

Here's what I noticed:


  • Trump constantly interrupts Pence. Pence shuts up and takes it like a Vice Presidential candidate who is still replaceable.
  • Trump constant interrupts Stahl, especially to answer the question that he wants her to ask, which is not the question that she's trying to ask. Once when she tried to interrupt back to say that he was dodging a question, he finger-shushed her.
  • Trump states and Pence seems to agree that they can agree to disagree on core policy and that won't cause any problems at all.
  • But the thing that really threw me was the point where this exchange happened:
    • Trump points out that Clinton supported the War in Iraq, which proves that she is terrible. (Trump also supported it before Sanders used it as a talking point against Clinton.) 
    • Lesley Stahl points out that Pence voted for the Iraq War.
    • Trump says that Pence is allowed to make mistakes.
    • Lesley Stahl says "But Clinton's not?"
    • Trump replies, absolutely serious, matter-of-fact, straight-faced "No, she's not."

So basically, he admitted on national TV that he holds Clinton to a higher standard than he holds others to and he thinks that's completely reasonable.

Someone, somewhere told Trump that he should do that interview. Having watched it, I disagree. That was a disaster. He was not ready for that interview. He can't even do a 20 minute interview without being a dick to his VP pick.


The RNC's Color(ed) Theme



The convention center is set up in a red, white, and blue theme, with sections for each of the colors. Apparently, the suites level uses the "White Elevators."

It was here when I started to wonder if #NeverTrump was sabotaging Trump from within the Republican Party. People planned this. People printed the signs. People who don't get paid very much did all of this wrapping and sign hanging.

How did no one notice the segregation reference? Maybe they did and they just didn't say anything.

The RNC Day 1: Melania's Speech


Melania's speech was touted afterwards as a show of her fluency in English, her ability to articulate an idea, blah blah blah, which I thought was kind of a silly approach to coverage since it was undoubtedly written by a speechwriter. Being able to read a speech that someone else wrote isn't a sign of being "articulate." I'm unopposed to using speechwriters for this. That's how these things are done.

Then someone pointed me to a video of Melania's speech and Michelle Obama's equivalent speech, proving plagiarism. While a few phrases from the section are idioms, such as "my word is my bond," the problem isn't so much the precise wording but the content itself. It's the same list of things, presented in the same order, with identical wording for almost all of the things. Plus, the non-identical wording could easily be chalked up to Melania not reading the teleprompter 100% correctly, which again is not something that I condemn in any way. In addition to being very common, it can make the speaker feel more spontaneous, which causes them to deliver a speech that sounds more spontaneous, which audiences like better.

However, it was my assumption that she'd used a speechwriter. I have since discovered that she gave an interview to Matt Lauer yesterday claiming that she wrote the speech with "as little help as possible." Then I was just confused! Couldn't she tell that she was plagiarizing something that she'd be busted for in about 4 minutes, but only that long because of satellite delay and evidence-gathering.

Thankfully, the Trump campaign has cleared that up by sending a response to the allegations that doesn't actually respond to the allegations, but does describe Melania's speechwriting process as "giving some notes to her speechwriters." So why would a speechwriter lift a section from Michelle Obama's equivalent speech-- unless the speechwriter wanted to make her and Trump look bad?

Upcoming Speakers


Finally, my "Trump is facing internal sabotage" conspiracy theory involves some of the RNC guest speakers. (I have not yet read a comprehensive list and may have more thoughts after I do):

Scott Baio


Baio's politics are, shall we say, irrational. I've seen him have Twitter meltdowns arguing with the Jezebel.com writers and commentariat. For more on this topic, Google "lesbian shit asses." No, I don't know what that means and no I'm not shitting you, so to speak. His Trump fandom has recently showed him back into the spotlight, where he has behaved... oddly.

And seriously, the socks. OMG the socks.

Trump's Kids


They're going to be there because "this is about family" and showing off his successful (adult) children will show was a great leader Trump is. What have they accomplished? So far as I know, nothing. They have accomplished being born rich.

Antonio Sabato Jr?


In my opinion, Antonio Sabato Jr. is one of the most physically attractive men to have acted on television or in movies during my lifetime. The man is a serious hottie, totally swoonworthy. He was the best part of Earth 2. That said, I have no idea what qualifies him to speak at a political convention. Thankfully, wikipedia has a "politics" section in his entry and now that I've read it, I still have no idea why he's qualified to speak at a political convention. I suspect it's "he's Latino, right? We need the Latino vote."

That said, if he would like to come over and remodel my mom's house in very little clothing, we'd be happy to accept.

Monday, July 18, 2016

DEBUNKENING: Ruth Bader-Ginsberg is Unethical Because She Endorsed Clinton

This may have been doctored. Maybe.
Claim: Ruth Bader-Ginsberg endorsed Hillary Clinton, which is super unethical and totally unprecedented. She should resign!

Important Omitted Information: Well, she didn't endorse Clinton; she implied that she believed that Clinton would win. "The next SCOTUS nominees will be made by a woman" is not the same thing as "Vote for Clinton! She's the best for the job!" It's a prediction. When she got called on it, she doubled down on her criticism of Trump.

And sorry, has anyone heard of Scalia? Unprecedented? Do you have a form of amnesia that both disallows you to remember events prior to yesterday and convinces you otherwise? Or have you really never paid attention to the SCOTUS either? The man has stated in interviews that the Constitution does not support equal rights for women or LGBT people. He thinks that the right to privacy doesn't apply to either group, giving random strangers power over my health procedures and a "right" to search houses on suspicion of homosexual activity in private between legally consenting adult humans, which he equates to bestiality and child molestation and toaster-sex. He has said these things in opinions, lectures, and interviews.

I realize that people believe that the SCOTUS should be apolitical, but that's not possible. Scalia claimed to be apolitical but often used his religion as justification for his stances and nearly always argued a very far right wing position. His preferred interpretation of the Constitution was that "all men are created equal" applies only to people considered men at the time in which it was written, so the equality and fairness dictated by the Bill of Rights apply only to white men of certain religions. (Yes, I know that the quote is from the Declaration of Independence. It's also the core belief embodied by the Bill of Rights.)

People have been claiming that the Federal rules for Judges and Justices say that they must avoid an appearance of impropriety. However, there are a few problems with that. They must avoid an appearance of impropriety in regards to a case, recusing themselves from it if it would show impropriety. In most cases, this is done because the Judge has a financial tie to a party to the case, but this might reasonably fall under this rule too. Therefore, the worst that she has done here is give herself an appearance of impropriety in any court cases involving Trump that are appealed to SCOTUS and are selected for full-court review, requiring that she recuse herself in those cases. Unless Trump wins the Presidency, which she has said she refuses to think about because it's too terrible and maybe she should move to New Zealand, this would be the numerous fraud and civil cases against him. If he wins, she might have to recuse herself if he's impeached or something. Can impeachments be appealed to the SCOTUS?

RBG grinning like a schoolgirl at HRC, Duh.
But "required" is a pretty strong word in this case, since the SCOTUS Justices are not bound by these rules. Each Justice, individually, looks at the case and decides whether they have a conflict of interest with it or some other appearance of impropriety problem with it, and recuse themselves if they decide that they do. And if they decide that they don't any everyone else on the planet disagrees? Oh well. Too bad for everyone else! There's no consequence for them refusing to recuse when people disagree. There's no process for holding them accountable.

This has been a problem in the recent past, and I hate to harp on the dead dude, but he just gave us so many examples of terribleness. I mean, the man died on a free hunting trip with a far-right-wing conservative group. I will grant that I searched specifically for Scalia examples but that's because I knew that there were tons of extremely clear ones.

When called upon to recuse himself in cases involving groups that gave gifts like trips to Scalia, he stated that something is very wrong with the country if people think that a Supreme Court Justice can be bribed for so very little.

By the way, Justices Thomas and Alito went to those conferences as well and they undoubtedly will continue to go. Thomas may have gone on a trip paid for by a conservative group already this year. I might be outraged when the right is outraged that Thomas gets free gifts from a group whose views he then espouses in court. That's way worse than pointing out the indisputable fact that Trump changes his stance within a single sentence,

Debunk: Did you think she's be voting for Trump? Did you think that a great legal mind whose career has been spent fighting for civil rights would vote for a guy who insists that he can do things contrary to civil rights because he has the balls to ignore the Constitution? A man who has said as part of his platform that he will simply ignore a SCOTUS decision?

Would a woman who fights for women's rights vote for the woman who fights for women's rights or for the guy who thinks that he has the utmost respect for women but says sexist things several times a day just to the media?

Besides, unlike Scalia, Thomas, Alito, or Trump, she's apologized.